CFTC – FairOdds Network

April 16, 2025

MGM CEO: Prediction markets may be ‘cement’ for federal government to enter gambling space

Bill Hornbuckle is urging the legal sports betting industry to handle the prediction market battle properly to avoid federal intervention.

As Bill Hornbuckle travelled to Atlantic City this week for a prominent gaming conference, the legal sports betting industry nationwide continued to race toward a proverbial fork in the road.

Days earlier, Kalshi had reported handle of $86 million (£65 million/€75.6 million) during The Masters tournament, roughly three times the volume traded on the platform for the Super Bowl. Over the last month, Kalshi and other prediction markets have been subject to a wave of cease-and-desist orders from states around the country. The litigation comes as the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) prepares this month for a highly awaited roundtable on the regulatory implications of sports event contracts.

Operating tax free on trading revenues, prediction markets pose an existential threat to the regulated gaming industry in the view of some industry ..

April 11, 2025

State of the Union: Kalshi wins injunction in Nevada; stocks receive Trump bump, more

Welcome to iGB's State of the Union, a look at the biggest North American sports betting stories we've covered over the week and briefs on others we found interesting.

Kalshi scores win with Nevada injunction

For a prediction market that has been besieged by state cease-and-desist orders over the last month, Kalshi notched a slight victory this week.

On Tuesday (8 April), US district court judge Andrew Gordon granted Kalshi a preliminary injunction against the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB). The injunction prevents the NGCB from imposing the order against Kalshi, contending that the site illegally offered sports wagering across the state.

As with other prediction markets, Kalshi is awaiting a closely watched roundtable from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for clarity on whether sports event contracts mimic sports gambling.

First takes on the order granting Kalshi's motion for a preliminary injunction in Nevada: quality advocacy wins the day..

March 12, 2025

MLB seeks CFTC “integrity framework” for prediction markets

Major League Baseball, perhaps hedging its position regarding the eventuality of trading on its product becoming being a widespread part of prediction markets, asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to create an “integrity framework” similar to those in place with states that authorise legalised sports betting.

The Closing Line substack was first to report MLB sent a letter via email to the CFTC noting that the “limited MLB event contracts available today do not carry the same integrity risks as prop bets even single-game bets, but we expect that equivalent offerings will arrive soon.”

To that end, MLB wants that integrity framework for prediction markets in a manner consistent with how it supports “legal sports betting at the state level based on robust regulation and relationships in which sports leagues are viewed as partners and integrity of competition is considered paramount.”

Watching and waiting on Kalshi

MLB’s request of the CFTC comes at a time when Kalshi ..

February 25, 2025

Nevada’s Titus is latest to push back on prediction market wave

Longtime Nevada representative Dina Titus has become the latest official to reach out to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding tougher enforcement against prediction markets.

Nevada’s Dina Titus is in her seventh two-year term as an elected official in the house of representatives. As such, she has experience with following proper processes and protocols to get things done.

And in a letter sent last Friday (21 February) to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) acting chairwoman Caroline D Pham, Representative Titus took issue with prediction market operators offering a form of sports betting without going through all the proper processes and protocols.

“This year, platforms have started to offer contracts on sporting events,” Titus wrote about midway through her two-page letter, a copy of which she posted on social media. She was referring to the likes of Kalshi, Crypto.com, Robinhood and others. The platforms permit users to risk money, in a stock market-..

February 12, 2025

Trump nominates Kalshi board member as CFTC chief

Quintenz, who previously served as a commissioner for the CFTC under Trump, also spent time on the board of Kalshi.

Another day, another round of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) news, with the big story coming via President Donald Trump, who has nominated Brian Quintenz to become chairman.

“It is my great honour to be nominated by President Trump as the next chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where I had served as a commissioner in his last administration,” Quintenz said in a statement posted on X. “The CFTC plays a critical role in maintaining robust hedging and price discovery markets that are the envy of the globe. The agency is also well poised to ensure the USA leads the world in blockchain technology and innovation. I look forward to working with President Trump’s incredible financial regulatory team.”

News of Quintenz being nominated was first reported by Bloomberg Tuesday night. Currently serving as acting chairman is Caroline Pham.

Quintez ha..

January 13, 2025

After election boom, Kalshi gets creative in new markets, including sports

Over the fall, Kalshi successfully overcame legal challenges from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and became the first legal, regulated prediction market. The US presidential election was a gold mine for it and others – but now, the market is a hodgepodge of contracts for politics, finance and… sports?

Through the 5 November elections, the New York-based Kalshi was estimated to have taken in more than $700 million (£542.5 million/€651.5 million) in contracts, with some $430 million staked on the presidential race alone.

Kalshi prevailed in federal court against the CFTC last year by arguing that offering the contracts did not equate to gaming. The exchange lists the yes-no contracts with percentage odds and matches opposite contracts to each other. It then makes money on trading commissions. After Kalshi’s victory, multiple other well-known exchanges rolled out prediction markets, including Robinhood and Crypto.com.

The CFTC argued it was not equipped to be Ameri..

November 4, 2024

Rush to the polls, bet from anywhere: Prediction markets abound ahead of US elections

On 5 November, US voters will elect a new president and decide a litany of other political issues. What makes this election different from past ones is that investors – and bettors – have pounced on the rise of political prediction markets such as Kalshi.

Prediction markets, or derivatives exchanges that offer “yes/no” event futures contracts on current events like politics and pop culture, have been around for several years in relative grey-area obscurity. But a recent US federal court ruling appears to have opened the floodgates, at least for now.

On 2 October, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled in favour of Kalshi, a New York-based exchange whose senate- and house-related contracts had been delisted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in June 2023. The CFTC argued unsuccessfully that the contracts involved gaming due to their speculative nature.

Kalshi, meanwhile, leaned into arguments that have similarities to those used for legalised sp..

September 17, 2024

CFTC: Lower court made several errors in allowing Kalshi’s US political futures

Last week, two federal court rulings allowed then subsequently disallowed Kalshi from offering futures contracts on the outcome of congressional elections. Over the weekend, federal regulators said it should have never been allowed in the first place.
On 12 September, Judge Jia Cobb from the US District Court for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) “exceeded its statutory authority” when it halted the contracts last year. But hours later, the CFTC appealed to the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. That court granted a stay, meaning Kalshi cannot offer futures until the appeals court rules. Kalshi and the CFTC are scheduled to give oral arguments for the case on Thursday (19 September).

Kalshi and the CFTC will face off in court- again- on Thursday, to debate the commission's argument that election betting should be frozen pending its appeal pic.twitter.com/GEPbuc5I2D
— Alexander Osipovich (@aosipovic..

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Tag: CFTC