On 5 November, US voters will elect a new president and decide a litany of other political issues. What makes this election different from past ones is that investors – and bettors – have pounced on the rise of political prediction markets such as Kalshi.
Prediction markets, or derivatives exchanges that offer “yes/no” event futures contracts on current events like politics and pop culture, have been around for several years in relative grey-area obscurity. But a recent US federal court ruling appears to have opened the floodgates, at least for now.
On 2 October, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled in favour of Kalshi, a New York-based exchange whose senate- and house-related contracts had been delisted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in June 2023. The CFTC argued unsuccessfully that the contracts involved gaming due to their speculative nature.
Kalshi, meanwhile, leaned into arguments that have similarities to those used for legalised sp..
