Kalshi – Page 2 – FairOdds Network

January 29, 2025

Will US pro leagues become sports betting exchange operators?

Rise of prediction markets on sports events creates entry point for league-run exchanges.

For the quarter century-plus from 1992 until May 2018, the four prominent US-based pro sports leagues plus the NCAA acted as the legal bulwark against the expansion of legal sports betting outside Nevada.

Things changed when the Supreme Court announced its decision in Murphy v NCAA in 2018. That decision opened the floodgates for the legalisation of sports wagering nationwide. Senators and congressmen across the country heeded the call and the leagues, well, they played ball. This began with Major League Baseball and the National Basketball Association announcing a first wave of authorised gaming operators, which are effectively licensing and sponsorship agreements with certain sportsbooks.

Things may soon go much further.

In the wake of the latest mutation within the DNA of US sports betting – the apparent legality of Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated sports events contr..

January 13, 2025

After election boom, Kalshi gets creative in new markets, including sports

Over the fall, Kalshi successfully overcame legal challenges from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and became the first legal, regulated prediction market. The US presidential election was a gold mine for it and others – but now, the market is a hodgepodge of contracts for politics, finance and… sports?

Through the 5 November elections, the New York-based Kalshi was estimated to have taken in more than $700 million (£542.5 million/€651.5 million) in contracts, with some $430 million staked on the presidential race alone.

Kalshi prevailed in federal court against the CFTC last year by arguing that offering the contracts did not equate to gaming. The exchange lists the yes-no contracts with percentage odds and matches opposite contracts to each other. It then makes money on trading commissions. After Kalshi’s victory, multiple other well-known exchanges rolled out prediction markets, including Robinhood and Crypto.com.

The CFTC argued it was not equipped to be Ameri..

November 4, 2024

Rush to the polls, bet from anywhere: Prediction markets abound ahead of US elections

On 5 November, US voters will elect a new president and decide a litany of other political issues. What makes this election different from past ones is that investors – and bettors – have pounced on the rise of political prediction markets such as Kalshi.

Prediction markets, or derivatives exchanges that offer “yes/no” event futures contracts on current events like politics and pop culture, have been around for several years in relative grey-area obscurity. But a recent US federal court ruling appears to have opened the floodgates, at least for now.

On 2 October, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled in favour of Kalshi, a New York-based exchange whose senate- and house-related contracts had been delisted by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in June 2023. The CFTC argued unsuccessfully that the contracts involved gaming due to their speculative nature.

Kalshi, meanwhile, leaned into arguments that have similarities to those used for legalised sp..

September 17, 2024

CFTC: Lower court made several errors in allowing Kalshi’s US political futures

Last week, two federal court rulings allowed then subsequently disallowed Kalshi from offering futures contracts on the outcome of congressional elections. Over the weekend, federal regulators said it should have never been allowed in the first place.
On 12 September, Judge Jia Cobb from the US District Court for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) “exceeded its statutory authority” when it halted the contracts last year. But hours later, the CFTC appealed to the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. That court granted a stay, meaning Kalshi cannot offer futures until the appeals court rules. Kalshi and the CFTC are scheduled to give oral arguments for the case on Thursday (19 September).

Kalshi and the CFTC will face off in court- again- on Thursday, to debate the commission's argument that election betting should be frozen pending its appeal pic.twitter.com/GEPbuc5I2D
— Alexander Osipovich (@aosipovic..

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Tag: Kalshi