Over the fall, Kalshi successfully overcame legal challenges from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and became the first legal, regulated prediction market. The US presidential election was a gold mine for it and others – but now, the market is a hodgepodge of contracts for politics, finance and… sports?
Through the 5 November elections, the New York-based Kalshi was estimated to have taken in more than $700 million (£542.5 million/€651.5 million) in contracts, with some $430 million staked on the presidential race alone.
Kalshi prevailed in federal court against the CFTC last year by arguing that offering the contracts did not equate to gaming. The exchange lists the yes-no contracts with percentage odds and matches opposite contracts to each other. It then makes money on trading commissions. After Kalshi’s victory, multiple other well-known exchanges rolled out prediction markets, including Robinhood and Crypto.com.
The CFTC argued it was not equipped to be Ameri..
